Comment: Tablewelle At The Ces 2011

A hype with a foreseeable end? Image 
source (based): Flickr , author: cjc4454. Published under CC BY-SA 2.0 .

After about 25 years of dealing with x86 technology, I feel today not only a quarter-century older, but sometimes also like the proverbial oak, which does not care when a short-lived sow rubs the fur against her again. In addition to the many software updates and DirectX version conflicts, all of this has already been experienced and survived, with all of that you have lived.Whether or not you should be able to switch from this trot as an oak into the “attention mode” because of these “kaba-quoted tablets”, which turned this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas into a kind “CESTablet”, that seems to me Rather questionable. Most systems in the comet tail of the undisputed market leader Apple iPad, but also this itself, show neither really new form factors nor abilities. So we will see them disappear as they have dived, and there are a few good reasons (and one or two against them).
Factor The current models are, of course, very flat and light and also equipped with “right” operating systems. But this does not change the fact that not such at least in a few specific areas have long been such keyboardless Flundern their existence, only without any “Chique”.In warehouses, hospitals and production plants, more or less “ruggadized” systems, which are operated with stylus pens or mini-keyboards, have long been used. Usually only one or two applications run at the time, but angry tongues claim that the iPad is not different.

However, the “form factor” is not really new in itself. For 10 years, there has been something like that already, if rather in the enterprise area . With the capacitive displays and the large buttons, the models show, in my opinion, only further developments; Just fitting to the targeted market segment of the networked multimedia consumer community And although the thick buttons, which one would meet partly even without a finger-ie with the back of the hand or the forehead-would make me feel as an extreme coarse motorist, they still have me Something else remembers: The special senior handy from the past years, as for example the below, which five years ago a short appearance in the CyberBloc were allowed to enjoy.

Sure, the comparison is a little mean and technically, of course, limping, but just the big buttons, also suitable for Parkinson-plagued seniors, look a bit embarrassing. Fewer open people could also complain that by the easy to recognize, partly standardized app iconsalways half the environment their respective actions can get along. A characteristic which is more like egocentric Asians, because the common, Central European self-broker.

Yes, they can do some… they can create direct connections with Twitter, Facebook and the whole other, “social” services. They “connect” to the UMTS Internet and at home also into the WLAN, take up memory cards, show photos in a slide show-on request in portrait or landscape format-and can be expanded with USB devices. Some are also very good for newspaper reading, others can determine my current location and lead me by GPS through the world. One or the other system should be strong enough to play high-resolution videos.

But then the oak twitches only with the shoulder and asks: “Well? Others can! And to the “productive use” is a tablet probably not so synonymous really. ” Well, one could argue that the new NVidia-Tegra2 systems, which combine a GeForce chip with an ARM-A9 processorand are characterized by particularly long battery times and good graphics features, could penetrate the market from below. After all, these processors are already quite common in the smartphone market, so the introduction of a “system on a chip” module should lead to a further convergence of the types (tablets with phone functions<=>smartphones with full OS capabilities). My netbook I would not for it but probably not give.

According to a non-representative survey in the circle of friends, the tablets will actually disappear, or make themselves comfortable in a small, fine corner, while the conquest of the mass market is rather the smartphones.

Everyone may have their own opinion here, but one thing is certain: none of these new usability wonders solves any real problem, neither a technical nor a financial one. They onlyenclose a not so great gap in usability , especially “couch operation”. It is easy to imagine that smartphones will soon be able to do this, even at slightly lower prices. With average sales prices of 500 euros and more , the “pads” in any case already quite orderly book, as long as they do not even have to be purchased (usually even more expensive) mobile contract.

Market outlook
Looking at the coverage of CES 2010, a year ago, it is striking that at that time a lot of tabletswere already in work . This year, too, I’ve seen a lot of announcements and prototypes in this direction, although there are a lot of real-world systems. However, I can not resist the impression that the manufacturers are not taking the trend seriously or are not able to compete with the Apple iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab. Of the last year’s “pre-iPad” developments, no one has really been able to hold on to the market, let alone position well, which corresponds to the generally quite weak market penetration. Now the post iPad models must show what they can.

Some people may see the potential in the small distribution, but in my opinion this is not enough. These comic flunders will never conquer the huge PC world market or even help to secure for the next years; Certainly not even that they will affect him particularly with respect to the sales quantities . Although the tablets do not seem to be able to cannibalize any other area (= hostile takeover of market shares). Whether they really generate “new” sales, but be doubtful. Customers who would have bought a netbook two years ago would today more likely to strike a tablet… more “displays” do not go however however over the Ladentisch. If it runs well maybe a few more Euros. Overall, I trust the touch-driven newcomers, a relatively fixed place in the niche, similar to the netbook has come after the hype. More but not really.

Only with Apple, the iPad will not have to vacate its place in the model hierarchy andphilosophy so quickly. Not least due to the hesitant efforts of other manufacturers and the conditional success of their to any tablet systems, it will probably also be the market leader and thus become a further-all-important feature for Apple.

If the market is then somehow divided, the new situation will be even more recognizable, that with the very large PC producers soon times a return to core business and core competencies as well as the barking of large markets is due. With these peanuts from Androidland you can not earn money…